Ecosystems Paper

In an effort not to become one of the estimated 200 million blogs that have now been abandoned, I thought it about time I let the blogosphere know that the paper I submitted to Ecosystems with Dr. George Perry and Dr. Raul Romero-Calcerrada has been accepted for publication. The paper arose out of the initial statistical modelling of the SPA I did for my PhD thesis (also used in Millington 2005) and examines the use of statistical techniques for explaining causes of land use and cover changes versus techniques for projecting change.

Here’s the abstract:

In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing, commensurate with decreases in agricultural land use(s). Much of the land use/cover change (LUCC) in this region is associated with the marginalisation of traditional agricultural practices due to ongoing socioeconomic shifts and subsequent ecological change. Regression-based models of LUCC have two purposes: (i) to aid explanation of the processes driving change and/or (ii) spatial projection of the changes themselves. The independent variables contained in the single ‘best’ regression model (i.e. that which minimises variation in the dependent variable) cannot be inferred as providing the strongest causal relationship with the dependent variable. Here, we examine the utility of hierarchical partitioning and multinomial regression models for, respectively, explanation and prediction of LUCC in EU Special Protection Area 56, ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio’ (SPA 56) near Madrid, Spain. Hierarchical partitioning estimates the contribution of regression model variables, both independently and in conjunction with other variables in a model, to the total variance explained by that model and is a tool to isolate important causal variables. By using hierarchical partitioning we find that the combined effects of factors driving land cover transitions varies with land cover classification, with a coarser classification reducing explained variance in LUCC. We use multinomial logistic regression models solely for projecting change, finding that accuracies of maps produced vary by land cover classification and are influenced by differing spatial resolutions of socioeconomic and biophysical data. When examining LUCC in human-dominated landscapes such as those of the Mediterranean Basin, the availability and analysis of spatial data at scales that match causal processes is vital to the performance of the statistical modelling techniques used here.

Look out for it during 2007:

MILLINGTON, J.D.A., Perry, G.L.W. and Romero-Calcerrada, R. (In Press) Regression techniques for explanation versus prediction: A case study of Mediterranean land use/cover change Ecosystems

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